ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global cereal production is expected to reach approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026, representing a 2% decrease from the record harvest of 2025. This latest forecast is also 3.4 million tonnes lower than previous estimates. Despite this annual decline, world cereal output would still rank as the second-highest on record, with a reduction of about 61.1 million tonnes compared to last year.
Much of the global outlook’s softness is driven by maize, with projected production at 1.309 billion tonnes. Extreme heat and dry conditions have lowered yield expectations across parts of the European Union, where France and Poland saw some of the most significant downward revisions. Smaller reductions also affected India and Paraguay, while higher yields in Argentina and Brazil partially offset the decline. Both South American producers continue to anticipate maize crops significantly above their recent averages.
Wheat prospects have improved from earlier assessments, though global output remains below last year’s figures. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates production at 810.7 million tonnes, up by 4.2 million tonnes from prior projections. Improved yield forecasts boosted expectations for Canada and Morocco, and forecasts for Russia and Ukraine also increased, despite dry conditions that lowered estimates for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Overall, global wheat production still falls 3.8% short of 2025 levels.
Maize challenges weigh heavily on global grain supply
For the 2026/27 season, global rice production is projected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decline from the revised record of the previous season. Improvements in crop yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka contributed positively to this outlook, but these gains could not fully offset weaker forecasts for China, the Philippines, and the United States. Notably, rice planting in the U.S. has fallen to levels not seen in decades, limiting its contribution to global supplies.
Total cereal consumption worldwide is expected to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous season. While use of coarse grains and rice is anticipated to grow, wheat consumption is expected to decline from last season’s elevated levels. With population growth fueling food demand, global rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes. Additionally, feed demand supports coarse grain consumption, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Stockpiles remain high despite downward revisions
At the close of the 2027 seasons, global cereal stocks are projected at 947.2 million tonnes. This estimate is 10.7 million tonnes lower than previous forecasts but still 1.8 million tonnes above opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to reach 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% recorded in the prior season. Reserves of wheat are anticipated to grow in Russia and Ukraine, while lower maize and barley inventories largely contribute to the overall reduction in stock estimates.
International cereal trade for 2026/27 is forecasted at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Nonetheless, this volume remains below the record set in 2025/26. The rise is primarily driven by higher maize trade, with Argentina expected to ship as much as 39 million tonnes. Global rice trade in 2026 is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, representing a 1.9% decrease from the record levels achieved during 2025.