MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has approved a comprehensive long-term coal industry strategy aiming for an annual output of 662 million tonnes by 2050, aligned with its projected scenario. This plan extends the country’s coal policy into the middle of the century, with Russia producing approximately 443 million tonnes of coal in 2024, making this new benchmark a significant increase from that figure. The Russian government endorsed the programme through Order No. 2606-r, issued on September 22, 2026.
Instead of a single fixed forecast, the plan outlines several production trajectories. Its target scenario forecasts output at 530.1 million tonnes in 2030, climbing to 595.2 million tonnes in 2036 and ultimately reaching 662 million tonnes in 2050. Other scenarios project lower totals for the final year, with the stress case at 318.9 million tonnes, the conservative scenario at 460.8 million tonnes, and the inertial scenario approaching about 586.4 million tonnes.
Long-term export targets are also integral to the programme. Under the main scenario, exports are projected to reach 266.7 million tonnes in 2030 and 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, increasing further to 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Russian coal exports rose by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan also considers domestic consumption, processing capacities, extraction techniques, and regional production distribution.
Eastern regions to increase coal output share
The national coal strategy allocates a larger portion of production to Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which accounted for 48.3% of Russia’s total output in 2024. Across the different scenarios, their combined share is expected to grow to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia’s coal reserves, which are over 273 billion tonnes explored, support these plans, with existing mining facilities to remain operational and new resource areas to contribute to future targets.
Coal processing and extraction methods are assigned specific numerical goals in the strategy. In 2024, processed coal (excluding lignite) made up 58.9% of total output, with projections to increase that share to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of Russian coal in 2024, with their share expected to reach between 82% and 85% under the long-term scenarios. The plan also includes initiatives aimed at improving labor efficiency, technological advancement, safety standards, and environmental compliance.
Three phases outline the programme through 2050
The plan envisions implementation over three distinct periods. The initial phase, ending in 2030, focuses on immediate industry development and production strategies. The second phase from 2031 to 2036 emphasizes processing, utilization, and transportation infrastructure. The final stage spans from 2037 to 2050, with the Energy Ministry tasked with overseeing progress, supported by other federal and regional authorities, and required to submit annual updates to the Ministry of Economic Development as mandated by the government.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin unveiled the revised programme during a government session on September 21, replacing the coal industry plan through 2035 approved in 2020. Novak highlighted that this new plan anticipates a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with an estimated multiplier effect approaching nearly 10 trillion roubles. The target of 662 million tonnes remains associated with the scenario but is not the sole pathway for future production.